Electoral Math Lesson

"Peace is that brief, glorious moment when everybody stands around reloading" 

-Unknown

Now that 2013's election is over, we have but to look forward to those in 2014. Looking back at 2013 and what it can tell us about 2014, there are some optimistic signs, when money, votes, and issues are all taken into account together.

McAuliffe's win was closer than most expected, but he raised more money than anyone should ever have had to for a Governor's race. There was a very interesting Watchdog article yesterday, that broke down what each candidate spent on each of their votes. For his investment and result, Terry paid over 30 dollars per vote, Cuccinelli paid almost 19 dollars, and the the Little Libertarian Engine that Could, Robert Sarvis got the year's best bargain at LESS THAN A DOLLAR PER VOTE. But I digress.

I took the numbers, and rather than measuring dollar for vote, I decided to test the difference. McAuliffe won by 55,737 votes, and spent $13,712,821 more. That math comes out to Terry paying $246.03 for each vote of his lead, as deducted only from his lead in fundraising. Flawed candidate notwithstanding, that is a heavy price for a victory that seemed to defy the issues, and hinge on GOTV.

In 2014, I ask you...WHAT OTHER DEM CAN PAY THAT? 

One Dem in particular may have to. With issues like the Obamacare rollout, the looming budget and spending crisis, and immigration reform coming down the pipes in the near future. These are issues that Virginia tends to lean right on, and a non-Presidential election year means a conservative heavy electorate. The path to victory for Senator Mark Warner in the midterm is...narrowing.

Thanks to Virginia's decisive position against Obamacare, and the satirically bad rollout of the program, Mark Warner's seat is looking vulnerable(probably the reason that he was one of those 16 Senators meeting with Obama about fixing the ACA).

Warner is certainly no slouch in fundraising. The man won his own Governor's race. But when a career fundraiser like Terry can barely muster the money to win an election driven by money more than message, the question changes. The question becomes can Warner raise the cash necessary to offset his contrary views?

The Democrat model needs high spending to drive out the apathetic Obama-esque turnout model that they rely on to drown out the rural conservative votes from the counties. Can even Mark Warner, a popular past Governor, bring home those numbers with this slate of issues? I think not.